Battle of the EV Startups

Happy Friday and welcome to the first weekly edition of Critical Materials, your source for the biggest stories shaping the future of the auto industry.

Every Friday, we’ll break down the week’s biggest EV news, keep you up to speed on the cars we’re testing, and recap must-read stories from around the web on driverless cars, batteries, charging, and more.

I’ve got to say, we picked a hell of a week to kick this off. Between the Rivian R2 reveal, Lucid’s midsize EV announcements, and Honda’s epic retreat, the last few days have been a whirlwind for mobility news. Let’s dive right in!

– Today’s email was written by Tim Levin, Mack Hogan, Rob Stumpf, and Suvrat Kothari

After years of hype and buildup, Rivian revealed specs and pricing for the R2 on Thursday at SXSW in Austin, Texas. The California startup needs its first mass-market crossover to do well, or else its dreams of building autonomous cars and even cheaper cars like the charming R3 will remain just that: dreams. 

Can the R2 be a hit? I think it has a very good chance. But I don’t think success is guaranteed.  First, let’s quickly run down what the company announced this week.

The R2 Performance with the Launch Package will be the first R2 to arrive this spring, with a sticker price of $57,990. That dual-motor all-wheel-drive model will pack a serious punch: 656 horsepower, 609 lb-ft of torque, and a blistering 0-60-mph time of 3.6 seconds. It will have 330 miles of EPA-estimated range. 

A $53,990 R2 Premium all-wheel-drive model hits in late 2026, followed by the rear-wheel-drive, $48,490 R2 Standard in early 2026. The latter is the range leader, with a Rivian-estimated 345-plus miles. In late 2027, Rivian says it will roll out a $45,000 Standard model with a smaller battery and 275-plus miles of range. 

Some top-line thoughts: 

Range is right where it needs to be, especially in the higher trims; 300 miles is table stakes these days, and 330 or 345 is even better. Landing that much mileage in something that isn’t shaped like an egg is commendable too. The upcoming Jeep Recon goes for a similarly boxy shape, but it gets a puny 230 miles of range and costs 65 grand. (Part of that difference may come down to tires too, but it also shows that Rivian is in tune with what EV buyers want.)

On pricing: The R2 Performance lands within a few hundred bucks of the Tesla Model Y Performance, with a bit more range. It’s also cheaper than a lot of outsiders were expecting. That’s good. 

Starting at a steep price has its benefits, too. It’ll help pad margins, for one. And the early adopters who throw their money at Rivian first will likely be more tolerant of teething issues as production gets underway in Illinois. 

Rivian still says it will hit the $45,000 starting price it has promised for years. But that model feels like a box-checker rather than a real value. The same-priced Model Y will go 357 miles on a charge. We’ll have to see if Rivian actually keeps it in its plans; if the rest of the lineup sells well, it may not have to. That wouldn’t be much of a loss either. The big-battery Standard model looks like a much better buy for only a few grand more. 

So, can it be a hit? 

No matter how much better EVs have gotten in recent years, there are big gaps in the market. I think people will respond well to a long range, purposeful, high-tech EV that feels fresher than a Tesla. Here in the Bay Area, driving a Model Y is basically like driving a Toyota Camry—it’s not special.

Rivian has built a strong brand, too. Its outdoorsy vibe really works for it, and I think people are down for something that looks like a true SUV and has good ground clearance for off-pavement adventures. Early reviews show that the company managed to cram all that R1S charm into something smaller and cheaper. So it sounds like Rivian nailed the assignment. 

One last thing that stuck out to me: The R2’s pricing is almost exactly in line with the Model Y, before Tesla introduced the cheaper rental-car-grade versions recently: $45,000-$58,000. Tesla has sold hundreds of thousands of Model Ys per year at around those prices. That bodes well for the Rivian’s chances. 

There are big question marks too though.

There’s been a lot of hype, but will people actually show up in the numbers Rivian needs? Will the company nail production, which is hard to do for any new model? Can this get Rivian to profitability? Can it do what Tesla did but with far more competition from established brands?

For now, it’s all just speculation. But this spring, when the R2 hits showrooms, we may finally learn the truth.

-Tim Levin

Get up to speed on the news that caught our eye this week:

Honda canceled its unreleased 0-series and Acura RSX EVs, blaming a changing regulatory environment in the U.S. and competition in China. Our very own Mack Hogan has a wonderful (and rather scathing) deep dive into Honda’s latest reversal and where it leaves this company.

What does all that mean for Sony-Honda Mobility and its plans to launch the Afeela EV this year? That’s still TBD.

Honda isn’t the only one. Ford, GM, Honda, and Stellantis’ pullback on EVs has now totaled over $70 billion.

Slate Auto has hired a new CEO months before its low-cost EV hits production. Peter Faricy had stints at Amazon and Ford (during the JLR and Volvo era). We discuss this (and more!) on this week’s Plugged-In Podcast.

Canada is letting in Chinese EVs, but don’t expect them to be cheap at first. In fact, the Great White North won’t be enforcing the $35,000 cost requirement for its import quota in 2026 at all.

The Iran crisis and its effect on gas prices is raising the public’s interest in EVs. Can the curiosity outlast the conflict?

Nio turned its first-ever profit thanks to a 72% surge in vehicle deliveries last quarter.

Nissan’s adorable Leaf will become a robotaxi in Japan later this year, thanks to a new pilot program involving AV provider Wayve.

Rivian spin-off Mind Robotics raised a whopping $500 million in new venture funding, bringing its total valuation up to around $2 billion. Now we know a bit more about the startup’s plans, too, and how they differ from Tesla’s. Mind will focus on building more traditional factory robots, not humanoid ones, because "doing cartwheels does not create value in manufacturing."

Zoox and Uber are teaming up. The deal expands the ride-sharing app’s ever-growing robotaxi presence.

-Rob Stumpf

While Rivian was revealing the R2 on Thursday in Austin, I was on the ground at Lucid’s Investor Day event in New York.

Much like Rivian, Lucid is trying to prove to the world that it has what it takes to make the leap from being a cash-burning luxury EV startup to a high-volume mainstream automaker. And I got the download on what’s next. Some things we already knew, but Lucid dropped some key details too. 

The automaker announced two new models called Cosmos and Earth, both riding on its new midsize electric vehicle platform. It also had a “one more thing” moment toward the end of its presentation, showing us a Tesla Cybercab-like robotaxi concept called the Lunar. 

The broader message was clear.

Lucid is serious about shaping up its finances (it recorded a $2.7 billion net loss last year), competing in the autonomous vehicle space, and building the most high-tech EVs around. That’s fundamentally different from Tesla’s approach, which has largely given up on passenger vehicles.

The upcoming Cosmos will be a sleek coupe-style crossover rivaling the Tesla Model Y and Rivian R2, expected to start at around $50,000. We don’t know the driving range or battery size yet, but Lucid said EVs on the midsize platform only need 69 kilowatt-hours of battery capacity for 300 miles of range, and that the actual range on the Cosmos and Earth EVs could likely be higher. What we do know for sure is that the midsize EVs will be able to add 200 miles of range in just 14 minutes of charging, and also support bidirectional charging.

“It's going to be an awesome driving machine,” Lucid CEO Marc Winterhoff told reporters during a media roundtable. “It will be very efficient. It will have a very high range.”

“Radical efficiency” was the buzzword at the Investor Day event, with Lucid officials generously using it to describe efficiency gains across systems on the midsize platform. One that is especially worth highlighting is the new Atlas drive unit, which has 40% greater power density and is projected to be 10% more efficient than the Tesla Model Y motors. Plus, it’s significantly lighter and lower cost than the Zeus drive unit on the Gravity.

Lucid is going harder into the autonomous vehicle space too and had some announcements on that front.

It’s gearing up to turn one of the midsize EVs into a robotaxi, which will launch on the Uber platform in the future. (That’s on top of its current plan to roll out Gravity robotaxis, developed in partnership with AV technology company Nuro, on the Uber app this year.) And Lucid showcased what it called the Lunar robotaxi concept, a two-seat EV with no steering wheel or pedals.

Higher levels of driving automation are also in the cards for cars you can actually buy. The Gravity will also get hands-free highway driving capability this year, followed by hands-free city driving next year. The explicit goal is to take on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system.

“It’s not just about robotaxis, it’s also about providing this technology to our consumer vehicles that’s comparable or better than FSD,” Winterhoff said. 

The Cosmos will launch in the U.S. by the end of the year. And the Earth will arrive about 12 months later. After attending the Investor Day event and speaking to several Lucid officials, I think the midsize platform has the ingredients to deliver genuinely high-tech and exciting EVs. But its success will depend on a whole range of factors, like how EV demand evolves in the U.S. and whether Lucid can price it competitively enough to actually drive volume sales.

The bottom line: While establishment car companies like Honda backtrack on EVs, America’s EV startups have no such luxury. For Lucid’s sake, all of this had better work.

-Suvrat Kothari

The reborn Chevy Bolt is finally here, and I got to drive it last week outside Malibu, California. In sum: It’s an improvement in every way that matters.

It’s got a bit more range, way better tech, and a massively improved charging curve. In fact, with a 10-80% charge time of 26 minutes, the Bolt went from being back-of-the-pack to the quickest-charging GM EV.

There’s only one big issue: General Motors has already announced its execution date.

The plucky Bolt will only live for another 18 months, meaning the country’s most affordable EV is already facing a ticking clock. It’s a telling example of a worrying trend.

Americans say they want affordable EVs, but automakers can’t seem to make these products profitable and desirable at the same time. They’re the EVs we need, but not the ones we want. Check out my full review here.

-Mack Hogan

The R2 packs a bunch of sweet features. There’s a retractable rear window. There’s that Rivian-signature flashlight in the door. But I’ll let you in on my very favorite thing Rivian implemented here, which I saw on social media: a magnetic wireless phone charger.

Instead of sliding around, your phone just locks into place as you drive (assuming its compatible). It also means no more shifting your device around to find the charging sweet spot.

Range is cool. Software is nice. But this—this is true genius. See it in action here:

Thanks for reading Critical Materials. See you next week!

-Tim Levin